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FC Koln B vs Fortuna Koln Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - West

West - 30 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 17:30

FC Koln B

PPG 1.43 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Fortuna Koln

PPG 2.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 76.5% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a clear edge.

+22.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-18.8%0-211.5%0-310.0%0-4+12.2%1 1-02.6%1-16.9%1-29.0%1-37.8%1-4+9.5%2 2-01.0%2-12.7%2-23.5%2-33.0%2-4+3.7%3 3-00.3%3-10.7%3-20.9%3-30.8%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 8.8% 22.7% 4.40 -61.3%

Draw 14.6% 24.4% 4.10 -40.1%

Away win 76.5% 62.5% 1.60 +22.4%

Over 2.5 65.8% 67.6% 1.48 -2.6%

Over 3.5 43.9% 45.5% 2.20 -3.4%

BTTS 50.1% 66.7% 1.50 -24.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -37.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob50.1%

A 76% / xG 0.8-2.6 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 11.5%

#2 0–3 10.0%

#3 1–2 9.0%

#4 0–1 8.8%

#5 1–3 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Koln B0.8

Fortuna Koln2.6

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 43.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FC KOLN B · PPG 1.43

FORTUNA KOLN · PPG 2.14

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.14) vs Home AVERAGE (1.43)

Win probability 1X2

FC Koln B (H) 8.8%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -61.3%

Draw 14.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -40.1%

Fortuna Koln (A) 76.5%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV +22.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Koln B face Fortuna Koln in Germany - Regionalliga - West on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Koln B a 9% chance, the draw 15% and Fortuna Koln 77%, so Fortuna Koln are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for FC Koln B and 2.6 for Fortuna Koln (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Koln B are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 2.14 for Fortuna Koln. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +22.4%. This match finished 3-0.

FC Koln B vs Fortuna Koln Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - West

Match Preview & Prediction

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