Today / Verden 04 vs BSV Rehden

Verden 04 vs BSV Rehden Prediction

Wednesday, April 29, 2026

Verden 04
PPG 1.69 · HOME
0 – 1
FULL TIME
✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5
BSV Rehden
PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-14.3%0-23.1%0-31.5%0-4+0.7%1 1-06.2%1-18.9%1-26.4%1-33.1%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.4%2-19.2%2-26.6%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.4%3-16.4%3-24.6%3-32.2%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-15.3%4+-23.8%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.9%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 50.7%
Draw 23.9%
Away win 25.4%
Over 2.5 68.1%
Over 3.5 46.5%
BTTS 68.0%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 0-1
xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob68.0%

H 51% / xG 2.1-1.4 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%
#2 2–1 9.2%
#3 2–2 6.6%
#4 1–2 6.4%
#5 2–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Verden 042.1
BSV Rehden1.4

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.1% · O3.5 PROB 46.5%

Form & verdict PPG

VERDEN 04 · PPG 1.69

BSV REHDEN · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value
42%
BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.69), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Verden 04 (H) 50.7%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 23.9%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
BSV Rehden (A) 25.4%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Verden 04 face BSV Rehden on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Verden 04 a 51% chance, the draw 24% and BSV Rehden 25%, so Verden 04 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Verden 04 and 1.4 for BSV Rehden (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Verden 04 are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.50 for BSV Rehden. This match finished 0-1.

PredictVantage

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