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Mendiola vs Philippine Army Prediction— Philippines - PFL

Group Stage ·Wednesday, April 29, 2026, 08:00

Mendiola

PPG 0.00 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Philippine Army

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.5%0-11.0%0-21.0%0-30.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-01.6%1-13.2%1-23.3%1-32.3%1-4+1.9%2 2-02.6%2-15.3%2-25.4%2-33.7%2-4+3.1%3 3-02.8%3-15.8%3-26.0%3-34.1%3-4+3.4%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-111.1%4+-211.3%4+-37.7%4+-4+6.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.9% — — —

Draw 16.6% — — —

Away win 21.5% — — —

Over 2.5 90.1% — — —

Over 3.5 78.0% — — —

BTTS 84.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -19.8%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)3.3 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob84.4%

H 62% / xG 3.3-2.0 / O2.5 90% / BTTS 84%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–2 6.0%

#2 3–1 5.8%

#3 2–2 5.4%

#4 2–1 5.3%

#5 4–2✓ 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mendiola3.3

Philippine Army2.0

COMBINED 5.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 90.1% · O3.5 PROB 78.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MENDIOLA · PPG 0.00

PHILIPPINE ARMY · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Mendiola (H) 61.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Philippine Army (A) 21.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Mendiola face Philippine Army in Philippines - PFL on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mendiola a 62% chance, the draw 17% and Philippine Army 22%, so Mendiola are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for Mendiola and 2.0 for Philippine Army (5.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-2. There is a 90% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 84% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mendiola are averaging 0.00 points per game versus 0.00 for Philippine Army. This match finished 4-2.

Mendiola vs Philippine Army Prediction— Philippines - PFL

Match Preview & Prediction

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