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Versailles vs Chateauroux Prediction— France - National 1

Regular Season - 30 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 17:30

Versailles

PPG 1.77 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Chateauroux

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.2% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-18.0%0-23.9%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.6%1-112.2%1-25.9%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.3%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.9%3-14.7%3-22.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.5%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% 50.0% 2.00 +0.4%

Draw 25.8% 33.9% 2.95 -23.9%

Away win 24.0% 26.0% 3.85 -7.6%

Over 2.5 45.5% 45.5% 2.20 +0.1%

Over 3.5 24.1% 25.3% 3.95 -4.8%

BTTS 48.5% 54.1% 1.85 -10.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 39%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -23.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.5%

H 50% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 12.6%

#2 1–1 12.2%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 0–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Versailles1.5

Chateauroux1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.5% · O3.5 PROB 24.1%

Form & verdict PPG

VERSAILLES · PPG 1.77

CHATEAUROUX · PPG 1.08

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.77) > Away AVERAGE (1.08)

Win probability 1X2

Versailles (H) 50.2%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +0.4%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -23.9%

Chateauroux (A) 24.0%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -7.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Versailles face Chateauroux in France - National 1 on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Versailles a 50% chance, the draw 26% and Chateauroux 24%, so Versailles are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Versailles and 1.0 for Chateauroux (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Versailles are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 1.08 for Chateauroux. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +0.4%. This match finished 4-0.

Versailles vs Chateauroux Prediction— France - National 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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