Today / Germany - Regionalliga - Nord / Weiche F. vs Altona

Weiche F. vs Altona Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nord

North - 24 ·Wednesday, April 29, 2026, 17:30

Weiche F.

PPG 1.40 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Altona

PPG 0.47 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-11.7%0-21.2%0-30.6%0-4+0.3%1 1-03.6%1-15.1%1-23.7%1-31.7%1-4+0.8%2 2-05.4%2-17.7%2-25.5%2-32.6%2-4+1.3%3 3-05.4%3-17.7%3-25.5%3-32.6%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-08.4%4+-112.0%4+-28.6%4+-34.1%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.5% — — —

Draw 16.8% — — —

Away win 14.7% — — —

Over 2.5 81.7% — — —

Over 3.5 64.3% — — —

BTTS 72.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 74%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob72.9%

H 68% / xG 3.0-1.4 / O2.5 82% / BTTS 73%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.7%

#2 3–1 7.7%

#3 1–1 5.1%

#4 4–1✓ 5.7%

#5 2–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Weiche F.3.0

Altona1.4

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 81.7% · O3.5 PROB 64.3%

Form & verdict PPG

WEICHE F. · PPG 1.40

ALTONA · PPG 0.47

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in AVERAGE form (1.40), Away POOR (0.47) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Weiche F. (H) 68.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Altona (A) 14.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Weiche F. face Altona in Germany - Regionalliga - Nord on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Weiche F. a 69% chance, the draw 17% and Altona 15%, so Weiche F. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Weiche F. and 1.4 for Altona (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 82% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 73% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Weiche F. are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.47 for Altona. This match finished 4-1.

Weiche F. vs Altona Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nord

Match Preview & Prediction

More Germany - Regionalliga - Nord Predictions