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Quevilly Rouen vs Le Puy Prediction— France - National 1

Regular Season - 30 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 17:30

Quevilly Rouen

PPG 0.92 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Le Puy

PPG 1.77 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 61.9% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+36.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-111.0%0-210.8%0-37.1%0-4+5.5%1 1-05.1%1-110.1%1-29.9%1-36.5%1-4+5.0%2 2-02.4%2-14.6%2-24.6%2-33.0%2-4+2.3%3 3-00.7%3-11.4%3-21.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.9% 32.3% 3.10 -47.6%

Draw 21.2% 32.3% 3.10 -34.3%

Away win 61.9% 45.5% 2.20 +36.2%

Over 2.5 55.1% 46.5% 2.15 +18.5%

Over 3.5 32.7% 25.6% 3.90 +27.5%

BTTS 51.7% 54.6% 1.83 -5.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 39%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -23.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob51.7%

A 62% / xG 0.9-2.0 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 11.0%

#2 0–2 10.8%

#3 1–1 10.1%

#4 1–2 9.9%

#5 0–3 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Quevilly Rouen0.9

Le Puy2.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.1% · O3.5 PROB 32.7%

Form & verdict PPG

QUEVILLY ROUEN · PPG 0.92

LE PUY · PPG 1.77

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.77) vs Home POOR (0.92)

Win probability 1X2

Quevilly Rouen (H) 16.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -47.6%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -34.3%

Le Puy (A) 61.9%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +36.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Quevilly Rouen face Le Puy in France - National 1 on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Quevilly Rouen a 17% chance, the draw 21% and Le Puy 62%, so Le Puy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Quevilly Rouen and 2.0 for Le Puy (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Quevilly Rouen are averaging 0.92 points per game versus 1.77 for Le Puy. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +36.2%. This match finished 0-0.

Quevilly Rouen vs Le Puy Prediction— France - National 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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