Today / France - Feminine Division 1 / Nantes W vs Lyon W

Nantes W vs Lyon W Prediction— France - Feminine Division 1

Regular Season - 21 ·Wednesday, April 29, 2026, 17:00

Nantes W

PPG 1.70 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Lyon W

PPG 2.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-17.0%0-28.2%0-36.4%0-4+6.5%1 1-03.5%1-18.2%1-29.6%1-37.5%1-4+7.6%2 2-02.0%2-14.8%2-25.6%2-34.4%2-4+4.4%3 3-00.8%3-11.8%3-22.2%3-31.7%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.7%4+-20.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.4% — — —

Draw 21.2% — — —

Away win 62.4% — — —

Over 2.5 68.0% — — —

Over 3.5 46.5% — — —

BTTS 63.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 72%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob63.4%

A 62% / xG 1.2-2.3 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.6%

#2 1–1✓ 8.2%

#3 0–2 8.2%

#4 1–3 7.5%

#5 0–3 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nantes W1.2

Lyon W2.3

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.0% · O3.5 PROB 46.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NANTES W · PPG 1.70

LYON W · PPG 2.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.60) vs Home GOOD (1.70)

Win probability 1X2

Nantes W (H) 16.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Lyon W (A) 62.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Nantes W face Lyon W in France - Feminine Division 1 on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nantes W a 16% chance, the draw 21% and Lyon W 62%, so Lyon W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Nantes W and 2.3 for Lyon W (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nantes W are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 2.60 for Lyon W. This match finished 1-1.

Nantes W vs Lyon W Prediction— France - Feminine Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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