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Lens W vs Marseille W Prediction— France - Feminine Division 1

Regular Season - 21 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 19:00

Lens W

PPG 0.90 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Marseille W

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-17.9%0-27.7%0-35.0%0-4+3.7%1 1-05.1%1-110.0%1-29.7%1-36.3%1-4+4.7%2 2-03.2%2-16.3%2-26.1%2-33.9%2-4+3.0%3 3-01.4%3-12.6%3-22.6%3-31.7%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.1%4+-21.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.7% — — —

Draw 22.1% — — —

Away win 53.2% — — —

Over 2.5 62.1% — — —

Over 3.5 39.8% — — —

BTTS 61.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 72%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob61.4%

A 53% / xG 1.3-1.9 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–1✓ 7.9%

#4 0–2 7.7%

#5 2–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lens W1.3

Marseille W1.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LENS W · PPG 0.90

MARSEILLE W · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.90), Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Lens W (H) 24.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Marseille W (A) 53.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Lens W face Marseille W in France - Feminine Division 1 on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lens W a 25% chance, the draw 22% and Marseille W 53%, so Marseille W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Lens W and 1.9 for Marseille W (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lens W are averaging 0.90 points per game versus 1.20 for Marseille W. This match finished 0-1.

Lens W vs Marseille W Prediction— France - Feminine Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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