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Lyon W vs Montpellier W Prediction— France - Feminine Division 1

Regular Season - 22 ·Wednesday, May 6, 2026, 15:00

Lyon W

PPG 3.00 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Montpellier W

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 78.8% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.5%0-10.3%0-20.1%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-02.5%1-11.5%1-20.4%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-05.8%2-13.4%2-21.0%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-09.0%3-15.2%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-037.9%4+-122.2%4+-26.5%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 77.3% 80.0% 1.25 -3.4%

Draw 15.7% 18.5% 5.40 -9.1%

Away win 7.1% 12.9% 7.75 -27.0%

Over 2.5 78.8% 83.3% 1.20 -5.4%

Over 3.5 76.5% 62.5% 1.60 +22.4%

BTTS 50.8% 66.7% 1.50 -23.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 72%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)4.6 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob50.8%

H 77% / xG 4.6-0.6 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–0 10.4%

#2 5–0 9.6%

#3 3–0 9.0%

#4 4–1 6.1%

#5 2–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lyon W4.6

Montpellier W0.6

COMBINED 5.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.8% · O3.5 PROB 76.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LYON W · PPG 3.00

MONTPELLIER W · PPG 0.50

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (3.00), Away POOR (0.50) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Lyon W (H) 77.3%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -3.4%

Draw 15.7%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV -9.1%

Montpellier W (A) 7.1%

ODDS 7.75 · IMPLIED 12.9% EV -27.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lyon W face Montpellier W in France - Feminine Division 1 on Wednesday, May 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lyon W a 77% chance, the draw 16% and Montpellier W 7%, so Lyon W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.6 for Lyon W and 0.6 for Montpellier W (5.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-0. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lyon W are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.50 for Montpellier W. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +22.4%. This match finished 3-1.

Lyon W vs Montpellier W Prediction— France - Feminine Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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