Fleury-Merogis vs Valenciennes Prediction— France - National 1

Match Preview & Prediction

Fleury-Merogis face Valenciennes in France - National 1 on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fleury-Merogis a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Valenciennes 23%, so Fleury-Merogis are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Fleury-Merogis and 0.9 for Valenciennes (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fleury-Merogis are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.08 for Valenciennes. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +1.8%. This match finished 2-0.