Today / France - National 1 / Fleury-Merogis vs Valenciennes

Fleury-Merogis vs Valenciennes Prediction— France - National 1

Regular Season - 30 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 17:30

Fleury-Merogis

PPG 1.69 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Valenciennes

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.2% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-17.6%0-23.6%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.6%1-111.9%1-25.6%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.0%2-19.4%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.3%3-15.0%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-12.8%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.2% 51.3% 1.95 +1.8%

Draw 25.2% 30.3% 3.30 -16.8%

Away win 22.6% 28.2% 3.55 -19.8%

Over 2.5 46.3% 54.1% 1.85 -14.3%

Over 3.5 24.8% 32.3% 3.10 -23.1%

BTTS 48.6% 59.9% 1.67 -18.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 39%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -23.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.6%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 12.6%

#2 1–1 11.9%

#3 2–0✓ 10.0%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 0–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fleury-Merogis1.6

Valenciennes0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.3% · O3.5 PROB 24.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FLEURY-MEROGIS · PPG 1.69

VALENCIENNES · PPG 1.08

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.69) > Away AVERAGE (1.08)

Win probability 1X2

Fleury-Merogis (H) 52.2%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +1.8%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -16.8%

Valenciennes (A) 22.6%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -19.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fleury-Merogis face Valenciennes in France - National 1 on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fleury-Merogis a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Valenciennes 23%, so Fleury-Merogis are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Fleury-Merogis and 0.9 for Valenciennes (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fleury-Merogis are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.08 for Valenciennes. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +1.8%. This match finished 2-0.

Fleury-Merogis vs Valenciennes Prediction— France - National 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More France - National 1 Predictions