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Chiangrai United vs Chonburi FC Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 11:00

Chiangrai United

PPG 1.56 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Chonburi FC

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 55.0% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-17.3%0-24.0%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.7%1-111.8%1-26.5%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.5%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.6%3-15.1%3-22.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.0%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.0% 41.7% 2.40 +15.2%

Draw 24.3% 34.5% 2.90 -17.7%

Away win 27.7% 36.4% 2.75 -14.3%

Over 2.5 53.8% 50.0% 2.00 +7.6%

Over 3.5 31.7% 28.6% 3.50 +10.9%

BTTS 55.0% 57.8% 1.73 -4.9%

Home O1.5 48.1% 44.4% 2.25 +8.2%

Away O1.5 33.2% 36.4% 2.75 -8.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -54.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.0%

H 48% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0✓ 10.7%

#4 2–0 8.6%

#5 1–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chiangrai United1.6

Chonburi FC1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CHIANGRAI UNITED · PPG 1.56

CHONBURI FC · PPG 1.22

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

57%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Chiangrai United (H) 48.0%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +15.2%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -17.7%

Chonburi FC (A) 27.7%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -14.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chiangrai United face Chonburi FC in Thailand - Thai League 1 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chiangrai United a 48% chance, the draw 24% and Chonburi FC 28%, so Chiangrai United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Chiangrai United and 1.1 for Chonburi FC (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chiangrai United are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.22 for Chonburi FC. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +21.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Chiangrai United vs Chonburi FC Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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