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Bangkok United vs Sisaket United Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 11:30

Bangkok United

PPG 1.82 · HOME

LAST 5

W ····

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Sisaket United

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

L ····

// Model verdict

BTTS 52% chance

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-17.3%0-24.0%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.7%1-111.8%1-26.5%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.5%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.6%3-15.1%3-22.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.9%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.8% 73.5% 1.36 -35.0%

Draw 24.4% 25.0% 4.00 -1.4%

Away win 27.7% 14.3% 7.00 +56.3%

Over 2.5 53.8% 55.6% 1.80 -3.2%

Over 3.5 31.7% 33.3% 3.00 -4.9%

BTTS 54.7% 51.3% 1.95 +6.7%

Home O1.5 47.9% 63.7% 1.57 -24.8%

Away O1.5 33.2% 22.2% 4.50 +49.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -35.9%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.7%

H 48% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 10.7%

#4 2–0 8.6%

#5 1–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bangkok United1.6

Sisaket United1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BANGKOK UNITED · PPG 1.82

SISAKET UNITED · PPG 1.50

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Bangkok United (H) 47.8%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -35.0%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -1.4%

Sisaket United (A) 27.7%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +56.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bangkok United face Sisaket United in Thailand - Thai League 1 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bangkok United a 48% chance, the draw 24% and Sisaket United 28%, so Bangkok United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Bangkok United and 1.1 for Sisaket United (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bangkok United are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.50 for Sisaket United. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +70.0%. This match finished 3-1.

Bangkok United vs Sisaket United Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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