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Ayutthaya Utd vs Port FC Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Regular Season - 30 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 11:00

Ayutthaya Utd

PPG 0.71 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Port FC

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 58.3% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-113.1%0-211.6%0-36.9%0-4+4.6%1 1-06.1%1-110.9%1-29.7%1-35.7%1-4+3.8%2 2-02.5%2-14.5%2-24.0%2-32.4%2-4+1.6%3 3-00.7%3-11.3%3-21.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 15.6% 19.2% 5.20 -11.3%

Draw 26.2% 26.3% 3.80 -0.3%

Away win 58.3% 64.5% 1.55 -9.6%

Over 2.5 52.8% 63.7% 1.57 -17.1%

Over 3.5 26.6% 41.7% 2.40 -21.7%

BTTS 52.3% 63.7% 1.57 -17.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob52.3%

A 58% / xG 0.8-1.8 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 0–2 11.6%

#3 0–1 13.1%

#4 1–2 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ayutthaya Utd0.8

Port FC1.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AYUTTHAYA UTD · PPG 0.71

PORT FC · PPG 1.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.43) vs Home POOR (0.71)

Win probability 1X2

Ayutthaya Utd (H) 15.6%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV -11.3%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -0.3%

Port FC (A) 58.3%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -9.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ayutthaya Utd face Port FC in Thailand - Thai League 1 on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ayutthaya Utd a 16% chance, the draw 26% and Port FC 58%, so Port FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Ayutthaya Utd and 1.8 for Port FC (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ayutthaya Utd are averaging 0.71 points per game versus 1.43 for Port FC. This match finished 1-4.

Ayutthaya Utd vs Port FC Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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