Today / Thailand - Thai League 1 / Rayong FC vs Prachuap

Rayong FC vs Prachuap Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 12:30

Rayong FC

PPG 1.70 · HOME

UPCOMING

Prachuap

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-17.4%0-24.0%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.9%1-111.8%1-26.4%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.5%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.6%3-15.1%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.9%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.0% 34.5% 2.90 +39.2%

Draw 24.3% 33.3% 3.00 -16.3%

Away win 27.6% 45.5% 2.20 -23.6%

Over 2.5 53.8% 55.6% 1.80 -3.2%

Over 3.5 31.7% 33.3% 3.00 -4.9%

BTTS 54.6% 59.9% 1.67 -8.8%

Home O1.5 47.8% 40.0% 2.50 +19.5%

Away O1.5 32.9% 47.6% 2.10 -30.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -54.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 48% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 10.9%

#4 2–0 8.7%

#5 1–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rayong FC1.6

Prachuap1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

RAYONG FC · PPG 1.70

PRACHUAP · PPG 1.17

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

58%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Rayong FC (H) 48.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +39.2%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -16.3%

Prachuap (A) 27.6%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -23.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rayong FC face Prachuap in Thailand - Thai League 1 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rayong FC a 48% chance, the draw 24% and Prachuap 28%, so Rayong FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Rayong FC and 1.1 for Prachuap (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rayong FC are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.17 for Prachuap. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +40.5%.

Rayong FC vs Prachuap Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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