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Chiangrai Utd vs Uthai Thani Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Regular Season - 30 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 11:00

Chiangrai Utd

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Uthai Thani

PPG 0.79 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-19.0%0-24.7%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.1%1-112.6%1-26.6%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.6%2-18.9%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.0%3-14.2%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.9% 47.6% 2.10 -5.7%

Draw 28.4% 32.3% 3.10 -7.2%

Away win 26.7% 34.5% 2.90 -13.5%

Over 2.5 46.5% 56.8% 1.76 -18.2%

Over 3.5 23.3% 36.0% 2.78 -21.1%

BTTS 52.3% 62.5% 1.60 -16.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.3%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 8.6%

#3 1–0✓ 12.1%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chiangrai Utd1.4

Uthai Thani1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 23.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CHIANGRAI UTD · PPG 1.50

UTHAI THANI · PPG 0.79

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away POOR (0.79)

Win probability 1X2

Chiangrai Utd (H) 44.9%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -5.7%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -7.2%

Uthai Thani (A) 26.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -13.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chiangrai Utd face Uthai Thani in Thailand - Thai League 1 on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chiangrai Utd a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Uthai Thani 27%, so Chiangrai Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Chiangrai Utd and 1.0 for Uthai Thani (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chiangrai Utd are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.79 for Uthai Thani. This match finished 1-0.

Chiangrai Utd vs Uthai Thani Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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