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Chonburi vs N. Ratchasima Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Regular Season - 30 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 11:00

Chonburi

PPG 1.43 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

N. Ratchasima

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.8%0-17.8%0-22.8%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.2%1-111.8%1-24.3%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.2%2-18.8%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.1%3-14.4%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-12.3%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.6% 54.1% 1.85 -6.4%

Draw 27.0% 29.4% 3.40 -4.9%

Away win 22.4% 26.3% 3.80 -8.9%

Over 2.5 45.8% 58.8% 1.70 -22.1%

Over 3.5 18.6% 36.4% 2.75 -29.3%

BTTS 48.2% 62.5% 1.60 -22.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.2%

H 51% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.2%

#2 1–1 11.8%

#3 0–0 10.8%

#4 2–0 12.2%

#5 2–1✓ 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chonburi1.5

N. Ratchasima0.7

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CHONBURI · PPG 1.43

N. RATCHASIMA · PPG 0.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.43) vs P(Home)=50.6%

Win probability 1X2

Chonburi (H) 50.6%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -6.4%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -4.9%

N. Ratchasima (A) 22.4%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -8.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chonburi face N. Ratchasima in Thailand - Thai League 1 on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chonburi a 51% chance, the draw 27% and N. Ratchasima 22%, so Chonburi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Chonburi and 0.7 for N. Ratchasima (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chonburi are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 0.57 for N. Ratchasima. This match finished 2-1.

Chonburi vs N. Ratchasima Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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