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Buriram Utd vs Lamphun Warrior Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Regular Season - 30 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 11:00

Buriram Utd

PPG 2.64 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Lamphun Warrior

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 67.8% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-12.0%0-20.8%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.2%1-15.8%1-22.3%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.4%2-18.3%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.0%3-18.0%3-23.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-014.7%4+-111.8%4+-24.8%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.8% 76.9% 1.30 -11.9%

Draw 22.8% 20.0% 5.00 +8.4%

Away win 9.4% 12.8% 7.80 -16.0%

Over 2.5 61.7% 70.4% 1.42 -12.4%

Over 3.5 50.5% 48.8% 2.05 +3.5%

BTTS 54.6% 59.9% 1.67 -8.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob54.6%

H 68% / xG 2.9-0.8 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.4%

#2 3–0 10.0%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 3–1 8.0%

#5 4–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Buriram Utd2.9

Lamphun Warrior0.8

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 50.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BURIRAM UTD · PPG 2.64

LAMPHUN WARRIOR · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.64), Away POOR (0.86) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Buriram Utd (H) 67.8%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -11.9%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +8.4%

Lamphun Warrior (A) 9.4%

ODDS 7.80 · IMPLIED 12.8% EV -16.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Buriram Utd face Lamphun Warrior in Thailand - Thai League 1 on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Buriram Utd a 68% chance, the draw 23% and Lamphun Warrior 9%, so Buriram Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Buriram Utd and 0.8 for Lamphun Warrior (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Buriram Utd are averaging 2.64 points per game versus 0.86 for Lamphun Warrior. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +8.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Buriram Utd vs Lamphun Warrior Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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