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Kanchanaburi vs Ratchaburi Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Regular Season - 30 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 11:00

Kanchanaburi

PPG 1.07 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Ratchaburi

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-110.1%0-210.3%0-37.0%0-4+5.8%1 1-04.7%1-19.7%1-29.9%1-36.8%1-4+5.6%2 2-02.3%2-14.7%2-24.8%2-33.3%2-4+2.7%3 3-00.7%3-11.5%3-21.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 15.6% 25.3% 3.95 -23.0%

Draw 26.2% 28.2% 3.55 -4.2%

Away win 58.3% 56.5% 1.77 +3.2%

Over 2.5 59.3% 65.4% 1.53 -9.3%

Over 3.5 35.6% 43.5% 2.30 -18.1%

BTTS 54.6% 67.6% 1.48 -19.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob54.6%

A 58% / xG 1.0-2.0 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 0–2 10.3%

#3 1–2 9.9%

#4 0–1✓ 10.1%

#5 0–3 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kanchanaburi1.0

Ratchaburi2.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 35.6%

Form & verdict PPG

KANCHANABURI · PPG 1.07

RATCHABURI · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

Kanchanaburi (H) 15.6%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -23.0%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -4.2%

Ratchaburi (A) 58.3%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV +3.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kanchanaburi face Ratchaburi in Thailand - Thai League 1 on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kanchanaburi a 16% chance, the draw 26% and Ratchaburi 58%, so Ratchaburi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Kanchanaburi and 2.0 for Ratchaburi (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kanchanaburi are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 2.00 for Ratchaburi. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +3.2%. This match finished 0-1.

Kanchanaburi vs Ratchaburi Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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