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DH Cebu vs Manila Digger Prediction— Philippines - PFL

Group Stage ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 09:00

DH Cebu

PPG 2.22 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Manila Digger

PPG 2.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 86.3% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4% — a clear edge.

+20.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-12.9%0-25.6%0-37.0%0-4+17.9%1 1-00.8%1-13.1%1-26.0%1-37.5%1-4+19.2%2 2-00.4%2-11.7%2-23.2%2-34.0%2-4+10.3%3 3-00.2%3-10.6%3-21.1%3-31.4%3-4+3.7%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 6.1% 32.3% 3.10 -81.1%

Draw 9.0% 24.4% 4.10 -63.1%

Away win 84.9% 54.6% 1.83 +55.4%

Over 2.5 86.3% 71.4% 1.40 +20.8%

Over 3.5 71.5% — — —

BTTS 64.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -19.8%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 87%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)3.8 BTTS prob64.3%

A 85% / xG 1.1-3.8 / O2.5 86% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 7.5%

#2 1–4 7.1%

#3 0–3 7.0%

#4 0–4✓ 6.6%

#5 1–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

DH Cebu1.1

Manila Digger3.8

COMBINED 4.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 86.3% · O3.5 PROB 71.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DH CEBU · PPG 2.22

MANILA DIGGER · PPG 2.71

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: EXCELLENT (2.22) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.71)

Win probability 1X2

DH Cebu (H) 6.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -81.1%

Draw 9.0%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -63.1%

Manila Digger (A) 84.9%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV +55.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

DH Cebu face Manila Digger in Philippines - PFL on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives DH Cebu a 6% chance, the draw 9% and Manila Digger 85%, so Manila Digger are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for DH Cebu and 3.8 for Manila Digger (4.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 86% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, DH Cebu are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 2.71 for Manila Digger. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +55.4%. This match finished 0-4.

DH Cebu vs Manila Digger Prediction— Philippines - PFL

Match Preview & Prediction

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