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Dijon vs Sochaux Prediction— France - National 1

Regular Season - 30 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 17:30

Dijon

PPG 2.15 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Sochaux

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.3%0-112.1%0-26.0%0-32.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.7%1-113.5%1-26.6%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.6%2-17.5%2-23.7%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.8%3-12.8%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.3% 46.5% 2.15 -17.6%

Draw 29.9% 32.3% 3.10 -7.3%

Away win 31.8% 31.3% 3.20 +1.8%

Over 2.5 34.8% 51.3% 1.95 -32.1%

Over 3.5 16.0% 29.9% 3.35 -46.4%

BTTS 41.9% 58.8% 1.70 -28.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 39%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -23.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob41.9%

D 30% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.7%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 0–0✓ 12.3%

#4 0–1 12.1%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dijon1.1

Sochaux1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.8% · O3.5 PROB 16.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DIJON · PPG 2.15

SOCHAUX · PPG 1.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.15) > Away GOOD (1.71)

Win probability 1X2

Dijon (H) 38.3%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -17.6%

Draw 29.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -7.3%

Sochaux (A) 31.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +1.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dijon face Sochaux in France - National 1 on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dijon a 38% chance, the draw 30% and Sochaux 32%, so Dijon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Dijon and 1.0 for Sochaux (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dijon are averaging 2.15 points per game versus 1.71 for Sochaux. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +1.8%. This match finished 0-0.

Dijon vs Sochaux Prediction— France - National 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More France - National 1 Predictions