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Ferro Carril vs Almirante Brown Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 11 ·Tuesday, April 28, 2026, 22:30

Ferro Carril

PPG 0.33 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Almirante Brown

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-025.7%0-119.9%0-27.7%0-32.0%0-4+0.5%1 1-015.0%1-111.6%1-24.5%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-04.4%2-13.4%2-21.3%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-00.9%3-10.7%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.1% 52.6% 1.90 -46.6%

Draw 40.3% 35.7% 2.80 +12.8%

Away win 31.5% 21.7% 4.60 +44.9%

Over 2.5 24.2% 32.3% 3.10 -25.0%

Over 3.5 4.9% — — —

BTTS 39.6% 40.0% 2.50 -1.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob39.6%

D 40% / xG 0.6-0.8 / U2.5 24% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 25.7%

#2 0–1✓ 19.9%

#3 1–1 11.6%

#4 1–0 15.0%

#5 0–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ferro Carril0.6

Almirante Brown0.8

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 24.2% · O3.5 PROB 4.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FERRO CARRIL · PPG 0.33

ALMIRANTE BROWN · PPG 1.00

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.00) vs Home POOR (0.33)

Win probability 1X2

Ferro Carril (H) 28.1%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -46.6%

Draw 40.3%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +12.8%

Almirante Brown (A) 31.5%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +44.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ferro Carril face Almirante Brown in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Tuesday, April 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ferro Carril a 28% chance, the draw 40% and Almirante Brown 32%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.6 for Ferro Carril and 0.8 for Almirante Brown (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 24% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ferro Carril are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Almirante Brown. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +44.9%. This match finished 0-1.

Ferro Carril vs Almirante Brown Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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