Today / France - National 1 / Concarneau vs Rouen

Concarneau vs Rouen Prediction— France - National 1

Regular Season - 30 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 17:30

Concarneau

PPG 1.23 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Rouen

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 44.4% — a clear edge.

+19.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-115.4%0-211.2%0-35.5%0-4+2.8%1 1-08.3%1-112.1%1-28.9%1-34.3%1-4+2.2%2 2-03.3%2-14.8%2-23.5%2-31.7%2-4+0.9%3 3-00.9%3-11.3%3-20.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 20.2% 33.3% 3.00 -39.4%

Draw 26.7% 32.3% 3.10 -17.2%

Away win 53.1% 44.4% 2.25 +19.5%

Over 2.5 39.1% 46.5% 2.15 -15.9%

Over 3.5 19.1% 25.6% 3.90 -25.5%

BTTS 42.0% 54.6% 1.83 -23.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 39%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -23.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob42.0%

A 53% / xG 0.8-1.5 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 15.4%

#2 1–1 12.1%

#3 0–2 11.2%

#4 0–0✓ 10.5%

#5 1–2 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Concarneau0.8

Rouen1.5

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.1% · O3.5 PROB 19.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CONCARNEAU · PPG 1.23

ROUEN · PPG 1.62

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.23) vs Away GOOD (1.62)

Win probability 1X2

Concarneau (H) 20.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -39.4%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -17.2%

Rouen (A) 53.1%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +19.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Concarneau face Rouen in France - National 1 on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Concarneau a 20% chance, the draw 27% and Rouen 53%, so Rouen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Concarneau and 1.5 for Rouen (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Concarneau are averaging 1.23 points per game versus 1.62 for Rouen. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +19.5%. This match finished 0-0.

Concarneau vs Rouen Prediction— France - National 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More France - National 1 Predictions