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Al Khaleej vs Al Najma Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Regular Season - 30 ·Tuesday, April 28, 2026, 18:00

Al Khaleej

PPG 1.31 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Al Najma

PPG 0.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.5% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-12.7%0-21.4%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.0%1-17.1%1-23.6%1-31.2%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.1%2-19.2%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.9%3-18.0%3-24.1%3-31.4%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-09.5%4+-19.7%4+-24.9%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.0% 69.0% 1.45 -14.4%

Draw 22.5% 22.7% 4.40 -1.0%

Away win 18.5% 15.6% 6.40 +18.4%

Over 2.5 60.5% 64.5% 1.55 -6.2%

Over 3.5 48.8% 41.7% 2.40 +17.1%

BTTS 58.5% 60.6% 1.65 -3.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -6.2%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob58.5%

H 59% / xG 2.6-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.2%

#2 2–0 9.1%

#3 1–1 7.1%

#4 3–1✓ 8.0%

#5 3–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Khaleej2.6

Al Najma1.0

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 48.8%

Form & verdict PPG

AL KHALEEJ · PPG 1.31

AL NAJMA · PPG 0.14

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.31) vs P(Home)=59.0%

Win probability 1X2

Al Khaleej (H) 59.0%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -14.4%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -1.0%

Al Najma (A) 18.5%

ODDS 6.40 · IMPLIED 15.6% EV +18.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Khaleej face Al Najma in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Tuesday, April 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Khaleej a 59% chance, the draw 23% and Al Najma 19%, so Al Khaleej are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Al Khaleej and 1.0 for Al Najma (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Khaleej are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 0.14 for Al Najma. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +18.4%. This match finished 3-1.

Al Khaleej vs Al Najma Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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