Al Khaleej vs Al Najma Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Saudi-Arabia - Pro League Regular Season - 30 Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium· Dammam Tuesday, April 28, 2026 18:00

Al Khaleej PPG 1.31

3-1 HIT CS4

Al Najma PPG 0.14

Away· +18.4% ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Khaleej face Al Najma in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Tuesday, April 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Khaleej a 59% chance, the draw 23% and Al Najma 19%, so Al Khaleej are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Al Khaleej and 1.0 for Al Najma (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Khaleej are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 0.14 for Al Najma. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +18.4%. This match finished 3-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 59.0%

Odds: 1.45 EV: -14.4%

Draw 22.5%

Odds: 4.40 EV: -1.0%

Away 18.5%

Odds: 6.40 EV: +18.4%

Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 60.5% Odds: 1.55 -6.2%

Over 3.5 48.8% Odds: 2.40 +17.1%

BTTS 58.5% Odds: 1.65 -3.5%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-1 ✘

2nd 2-0 ✘

3rd 1-1 ✘

4th 3-1 ✔

5th 3-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Al Khaleej

2.60

Al Najma

1.02

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 -6.2% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-6.2%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.31) vs P(Home)=59.0%