Today / Saudi-Arabia - Pro League / Al Hilal vs Damak

Al Hilal vs Damak Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Regular Season - 30 ·Tuesday, April 28, 2026, 18:00

Al Hilal

PPG 2.47 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Damak

PPG 0.79 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 73.4% vs bookmaker-implied 87.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-10.8%0-20.3%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-04.5%1-13.0%1-21.0%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-08.4%2-15.6%2-21.9%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.5%3-17.1%3-22.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-026.5%4+-117.8%4+-26.0%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.4% 87.0% 1.15 -15.6%

Draw 19.8% 13.3% 7.50 +48.5%

Away win 6.8% 6.7% 15.00 +2.0%

Over 2.5 68.1% 76.9% 1.30 -11.5%

Over 3.5 64.6% 55.6% 1.80 +16.3%

BTTS 52.6% 54.1% 1.85 -2.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -6.2%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)3.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.6%

H 73% / xG 3.8-0.7 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 10.5%

#2 4–0 9.9%

#3 2–0 8.4%

#4 5–0 7.5%

#5 3–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Hilal3.8

Damak0.7

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.1% · O3.5 PROB 64.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AL HILAL · PPG 2.47

DAMAK · PPG 0.79

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.47), Away POOR (0.79) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Al Hilal (H) 73.4%

ODDS 1.15 · IMPLIED 87.0% EV -15.6%

Draw 19.8%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +48.5%

Damak (A) 6.8%

ODDS 15.00 · IMPLIED 6.7% EV +2.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Hilal face Damak in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Tuesday, April 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Hilal a 73% chance, the draw 20% and Damak 7%, so Al Hilal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.8 for Al Hilal and 0.7 for Damak (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Hilal are averaging 2.47 points per game versus 0.79 for Damak. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +48.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Al Hilal vs Damak Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Saudi-Arabia - Pro League Predictions