Today / Latvia - Virsliga / RFS vs Riga FC

RFS vs Riga FC Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 9 ·Tuesday, April 28, 2026, 17:00

RFS

PPG 2.25 · HOME

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Riga FC

PPG 2.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-18.1%0-23.9%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.8%1-112.2%1-25.8%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.7%2-19.3%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.9%3-14.7%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.5%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% 37.7% 2.65 +20.6%

Draw 29.5% 30.3% 3.30 -2.6%

Away win 25.0% 42.0% 2.38 -40.5%

Over 2.5 50.0% 51.8% 1.93 -3.5%

Over 3.5 23.5% 29.9% 3.35 -21.3%

BTTS 52.6% 58.8% 1.70 -10.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 12.8%

#3 0–0 8.5%

#4 2–0 9.7%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

RFS1.5

Riga FC1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 23.5%

Form & verdict PPG

RFS · PPG 2.25

RIGA FC · PPG 2.40

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.25), Away EXCELLENT (2.40)

Win probability 1X2

RFS (H) 45.5%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV +20.6%

Draw 29.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -2.6%

Riga FC (A) 25.0%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -40.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

RFS face Riga FC in Latvia - Virsliga on Tuesday, April 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives RFS a 46% chance, the draw 30% and Riga FC 25%, so RFS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for RFS and 1.0 for Riga FC (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, RFS are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 2.40 for Riga FC. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +20.6%. This match finished 3-3.

RFS vs Riga FC Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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