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W. Burghausen vs Nurnberg B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Bayern - 20 ·Tuesday, April 28, 2026, 17:00

W. Burghausen

PPG 1.93 · HOME

3 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Nurnberg B

PPG 2.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.93), Away EXCELLENT (2.20)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-113.9%0-210.6%0-35.4%0-4+2.9%1 1-07.9%1-112.1%1-29.2%1-34.7%1-4+2.5%2 2-03.4%2-15.2%2-24.0%2-32.0%2-4+1.1%3 3-01.0%3-11.5%3-21.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.0% — — —

Draw 29.1% — — —

Away win 43.9% — — —

Over 2.5 50.0% — — —

Over 3.5 22.1% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -17.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-4

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob52.6%

A 44% / xG 0.9-1.5 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 0–1 13.9%

#3 0–0 9.1%

#4 0–2 10.6%

#5 1–2 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

W. Burghausen0.9

Nurnberg B1.5

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.1%

Form & verdict PPG

W. BURGHAUSEN · PPG 1.93

NURNBERG B · PPG 2.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.93), Away EXCELLENT (2.20)

Win probability 1X2

W. Burghausen (H) 27.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Nurnberg B (A) 43.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

W. Burghausen face Nurnberg B in Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern on Tuesday, April 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives W. Burghausen a 27% chance, the draw 29% and Nurnberg B 44%, so Nurnberg B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for W. Burghausen and 1.5 for Nurnberg B (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, W. Burghausen are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 2.20 for Nurnberg B. This match finished 3-4.

W. Burghausen vs Nurnberg B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Match Preview & Prediction

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