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Bourg-en-Bresse vs Caen Prediction— France - National 1

Regular Season - 30 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 17:30

Bourg-en-Bresse

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Caen

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 53.7% vs bookmaker-implied 40.8% — a clear edge.

+31.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.8%0-115.7%0-211.5%0-35.6%0-4+2.8%1 1-08.3%1-112.1%1-28.8%1-34.3%1-4+2.2%2 2-03.2%2-14.6%2-23.4%2-31.6%2-4+0.8%3 3-00.8%3-11.2%3-20.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 19.7% 35.1% 2.85 -43.9%

Draw 26.7% 33.9% 2.95 -21.2%

Away win 53.7% 40.8% 2.45 +31.6%

Over 2.5 38.5% 45.5% 2.20 -15.3%

Over 3.5 18.6% 25.0% 4.00 -25.6%

BTTS 41.2% 54.6% 1.83 -24.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 39%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -23.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 49%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob41.2%

A 54% / xG 0.8-1.5 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 41%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 15.7%

#2 1–1 12.1%

#3 0–2✓ 11.5%

#4 0–0 10.8%

#5 1–2 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bourg-en-Bresse0.8

Caen1.5

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.5% · O3.5 PROB 18.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BOURG-EN-BRESSE · PPG 1.00

CAEN · PPG 0.93

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

Bourg-en-Bresse (H) 19.7%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -43.9%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -21.2%

Caen (A) 53.7%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +31.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bourg-en-Bresse face Caen in France - National 1 on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bourg-en-Bresse a 20% chance, the draw 27% and Caen 54%, so Caen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Bourg-en-Bresse and 1.5 for Caen (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bourg-en-Bresse are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.93 for Caen. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +31.6%. This match finished 0-2.

Bourg-en-Bresse vs Caen Prediction— France - National 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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