Today / Egypt - Premier League / K. Ismailia vs National Bank

K. Ismailia vs National Bank Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Relegation Group - 7 ·Tuesday, April 28, 2026, 17:00

K. Ismailia

PPG 0.33 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

National Bank

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 54.8% vs bookmaker-implied 53.2% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-112.1%0-211.3%0-37.0%0-4+5.0%1 1-05.6%1-110.5%1-29.8%1-36.1%1-4+4.4%2 2-02.5%2-14.6%2-24.3%2-32.7%2-4+1.9%3 3-00.7%3-11.3%3-21.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 15.8% 24.4% 4.10 -35.2%

Draw 29.4% 31.3% 3.20 -5.9%

Away win 54.8% 53.2% 1.88 +3.0%

Over 2.5 51.6% 50.0% 2.00 +3.2%

Over 3.5 29.4% 29.0% 3.45 +1.4%

BTTS 52.6% 56.5% 1.77 -6.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob52.6%

A 55% / xG 0.9-1.9 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 0–2 11.3%

#3 0–1 12.1%

#4 1–2 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

K. Ismailia0.9

National Bank1.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.4%

Form & verdict PPG

K. ISMAILIA · PPG 0.33

NATIONAL BANK · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.38) vs Home POOR (0.33)

Win probability 1X2

K. Ismailia (H) 15.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -35.2%

Draw 29.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -5.9%

National Bank (A) 54.8%

ODDS 1.88 · IMPLIED 53.2% EV +3.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

K. Ismailia face National Bank in Egypt - Premier League on Tuesday, April 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives K. Ismailia a 16% chance, the draw 29% and National Bank 55%, so National Bank are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for K. Ismailia and 1.9 for National Bank (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, K. Ismailia are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 1.38 for National Bank. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +3.2%. This match finished 1-3.

K. Ismailia vs National Bank Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Egypt - Premier League Predictions