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Neom SC vs Al Hazm Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Regular Season - 30 ·Tuesday, April 28, 2026, 16:45

Neom SC

PPG 1.21 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Al Hazm

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-19.6%0-25.1%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.0%1-112.9%1-26.9%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.1%2-18.7%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.6%3-13.9%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.8%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.8% 63.7% 1.57 -40.6%

Draw 32.7% 24.4% 4.10 +34.1%

Away win 29.5% 19.6% 5.10 +50.4%

Over 2.5 50.0% 61.7% 1.62 -19.0%

Over 3.5 22.4% 38.5% 2.60 -41.8%

BTTS 52.6% 60.6% 1.65 -13.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -6.2%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.6%

D 33% / xG 1.3-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.9%

#3 1–0 12.0%

#4 2–1 8.7%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Neom SC1.3

Al Hazm1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.4%

Form & verdict PPG

NEOM SC · PPG 1.21

AL HAZM · PPG 1.00

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.21), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Neom SC (H) 37.8%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -40.6%

Draw 32.7%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +34.1%

Al Hazm (A) 29.5%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +50.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Neom SC face Al Hazm in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Tuesday, April 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Neom SC a 38% chance, the draw 33% and Al Hazm 30%, so Neom SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Neom SC and 1.1 for Al Hazm (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Neom SC are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 1.00 for Al Hazm. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +50.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Neom SC vs Al Hazm Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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