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Al Shabab vs Al Fateh Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Regular Season - 30 ·Tuesday, April 28, 2026, 16:00

Al Shabab

PPG 1.38 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Al Fateh

PPG 0.77 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 58.5% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-17.9%0-25.1%0-32.2%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.3%1-111.9%1-27.6%1-33.3%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.0%2-18.9%2-25.7%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.5%3-14.5%3-22.9%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.4%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.0% 56.5% 1.77 -31.0%

Draw 30.7% 25.3% 3.95 +21.3%

Away win 30.4% 25.6% 3.90 +18.6%

Over 2.5 51.6% 66.7% 1.50 -22.6%

Over 3.5 30.5% 45.5% 2.20 -32.9%

BTTS 58.5% 69.0% 1.45 -15.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -6.2%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.5%

D 31% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.9%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 0–0 6.2%

#4 1–2 7.6%

#5 1–0 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Shabab1.5

Al Fateh1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AL SHABAB · PPG 1.38

AL FATEH · PPG 0.77

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.38) > Away POOR (0.77)

Win probability 1X2

Al Shabab (H) 39.0%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -31.0%

Draw 30.7%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +21.3%

Al Fateh (A) 30.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +18.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Shabab face Al Fateh in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Tuesday, April 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Shabab a 39% chance, the draw 31% and Al Fateh 30%, so Al Shabab are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Al Shabab and 1.3 for Al Fateh (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Shabab are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.77 for Al Fateh. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +21.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Al Shabab vs Al Fateh Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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