Al Shabab vs Al Fateh Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Saudi-Arabia - Pro League Regular Season - 30 Al-Shabab Club Stadium· Riyadh Tuesday, April 28, 2026 16:00

Al Shabab PPG 1.38

1-1 HIT MostLikelyScore

Al Fateh PPG 0.77

Draw· +21.3% ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Shabab face Al Fateh in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Tuesday, April 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Shabab a 39% chance, the draw 31% and Al Fateh 30%, so Al Shabab are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Al Shabab and 1.3 for Al Fateh (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Shabab are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.77 for Al Fateh. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +21.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 39.0%

Odds: 1.77 EV: -31.0%

Draw 30.7%

Odds: 3.95 EV: +21.3%

Away 30.4%

Odds: 3.90 EV: +18.6%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 51.6% Odds: 1.50 -22.6%

Over 3.5 30.5% Odds: 2.20 -32.9%

BTTS 58.5% Odds: 1.45 -15.2%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✔

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 0-0 ✘

4th 1-2 ✘

5th 1-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Al Shabab

1.50

Al Fateh

1.28

Model SuggestionBTTS -15.2% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -15.2% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Draw (+21.3%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5/Under 56%

BTTS/No 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -4.1%

Bet Hit 55% (11 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.38) > Away POOR (0.77)