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Al Shabbab vs Bahrain SC Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Regular Season - 19 ·Tuesday, April 28, 2026, 16:00

Al Shabbab

PPG 0.33 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Bahrain SC

PPG 0.11 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.6%0-118.8%0-28.2%0-32.4%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.3%1-112.5%1-25.4%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-04.8%2-14.1%2-21.8%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.1%3-10.9%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.4% 54.1% 1.85 -43.8%

Draw 34.6% 30.3% 3.30 +14.2%

Away win 35.0% 25.6% 3.90 +36.5%

Over 2.5 35.9% 50.0% 2.00 -28.2%

Over 3.5 7.0% 28.6% 3.50 -75.5%

BTTS 39.6% 55.6% 1.80 -28.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 18.6%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob39.6%

D 35% / xG 0.7-0.9 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 21.6%

#2 0–1 18.8%

#3 1–1 12.5%

#4 1–0✓ 14.3%

#5 0–2 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Shabbab0.7

Bahrain SC0.9

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.9% · O3.5 PROB 7.0%

Form & verdict PPG

AL SHABBAB · PPG 0.33

BAHRAIN SC · PPG 0.11

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.33), Away POOR (0.11)

Win probability 1X2

Al Shabbab (H) 30.4%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -43.8%

Draw 34.6%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +14.2%

Bahrain SC (A) 35.0%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +36.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Shabbab face Bahrain SC in Bahrain - Premier League on Tuesday, April 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Shabbab a 30% chance, the draw 35% and Bahrain SC 35%, so Bahrain SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Al Shabbab and 0.9 for Bahrain SC (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Shabbab are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 0.11 for Bahrain SC. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +36.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Al Shabbab vs Bahrain SC Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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