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Liepaja vs Grobina Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 9 ·Tuesday, April 28, 2026, 15:00

Liepaja

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Grobina

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-024.2%0-111.8%0-22.9%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-022.6%1-111.0%1-22.7%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.5%2-15.1%2-21.2%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-03.3%3-11.6%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.5%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.4% 67.6% 1.48 -37.3%

Draw 32.1% 24.4% 4.10 +31.6%

Away win 25.5% 17.9% 5.60 +42.8%

Over 2.5 27.0% 61.7% 1.62 -56.3%

Over 3.5 5.6% 40.0% 2.50 -86.0%

BTTS 39.6% 59.9% 1.67 -33.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob39.6%

H 42% / xG 0.9-0.5 / U2.5 27% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 24.2%

#2 1–0 22.6%

#3 1–1✓ 11.0%

#4 2–0 10.5%

#5 0–1 11.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Liepaja0.9

Grobina0.5

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 27.0% · O3.5 PROB 5.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LIEPAJA · PPG 1.00

GROBINA · PPG 2.00

⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength

70%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (2.00) strong but model favors Home (P=42.4%)

Win probability 1X2

Liepaja (H) 42.4%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -37.3%

Draw 32.1%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +31.6%

Grobina (A) 25.5%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +42.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Liepaja face Grobina in Latvia - Virsliga on Tuesday, April 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Liepaja a 42% chance, the draw 32% and Grobina 26%, so Liepaja are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Liepaja and 0.5 for Grobina (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 27% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Liepaja are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.00 for Grobina. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +42.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Liepaja vs Grobina Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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