Today / France - National 1 / Aubagne vs Orleans

Aubagne vs Orleans Prediction— France - National 1

Regular Season - 30 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 17:30

Aubagne

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Orleans

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 56.1% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-19.4%0-27.1%0-33.6%0-4+1.9%1 1-07.8%1-111.9%1-29.0%1-34.6%1-4+2.4%2 2-04.9%2-17.5%2-25.7%2-32.9%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.1%3-13.2%3-22.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.6% 26.7% 3.75 +18.5%

Draw 25.1% 30.8% 3.25 -18.4%

Away win 43.3% 52.6% 1.90 -17.7%

Over 2.5 52.8% 47.6% 2.10 +10.9%

Over 3.5 30.5% 26.3% 3.80 +15.9%

BTTS 56.1% 54.1% 1.85 +3.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 39%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -23.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob56.1%

A 43% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 0–1 9.4%

#3 1–2 9.0%

#4 1–0 7.8%

#5 2–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aubagne1.3

Orleans1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.8% · O3.5 PROB 30.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AUBAGNE · PPG 1.00

ORLEANS · PPG 1.62

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.62) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Aubagne (H) 31.6%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +18.5%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -18.4%

Orleans (A) 43.3%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -17.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aubagne face Orleans in France - National 1 on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aubagne a 32% chance, the draw 25% and Orleans 43%, so Orleans are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Aubagne and 1.5 for Orleans (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aubagne are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.62 for Orleans. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +18.5%. This match finished 0-2.

Aubagne vs Orleans Prediction— France - National 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More France - National 1 Predictions