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Petrojet vs Ismaily Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Relegation Group - 7 ·Tuesday, April 28, 2026, 14:00

Petrojet

PPG 1.67 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Ismaily

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.2% vs bookmaker-implied 61.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.0%0-17.4%0-21.7%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-021.9%1-110.1%1-22.3%1-30.4%1-4+0.0%2 2-015.0%2-16.9%2-21.6%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-06.9%3-13.2%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-11.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.2% 61.0% 1.64 -16.0%

Draw 32.2% 30.3% 3.30 +6.3%

Away win 16.6% 17.9% 5.60 -7.0%

Over 2.5 38.0% 42.6% 2.35 -10.7%

Over 3.5 11.4% 22.2% 4.50 -48.7%

BTTS 39.6% 45.5% 2.20 -12.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob39.6%

H 51% / xG 1.4-0.5 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 21.9%

#2 0–0 16.0%

#3 2–0 15.0%

#4 1–1 10.1%

#5 2–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Petrojet1.4

Ismaily0.5

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 11.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PETROJET · PPG 1.67

ISMAILY · PPG 0.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.67) vs P(Home)=51.2%

Win probability 1X2

Petrojet (H) 51.2%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -16.0%

Draw 32.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +6.3%

Ismaily (A) 16.6%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV -7.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Petrojet face Ismaily in Egypt - Premier League on Tuesday, April 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Petrojet a 51% chance, the draw 32% and Ismaily 17%, so Petrojet are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Petrojet and 0.5 for Ismaily (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Petrojet are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.43 for Ismaily. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +6.3%. This match finished 0-1.

Petrojet vs Ismaily Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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