Today / Malaysia - Super League / Melaka vs Johor Darul

Melaka vs Johor Darul Prediction— Malaysia - Super League

Regular Season - 23 ·Tuesday, April 28, 2026, 13:00

Melaka

PPG 1.40 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Johor Darul

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 92.7% vs bookmaker-implied 96.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.4%0-12.3%0-26.2%0-310.8%0-4+66.2%1 1-00.1%1-10.4%1-20.9%1-31.6%1-4+10.0%2 2-00.0%2-10.0%2-20.1%2-30.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-00.0%3-10.0%3-20.0%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 0.2% 2.2% 46.00 -90.8%

Draw 7.1% 12.1% 8.25 -41.4%

Away win 92.7% 96.2% 1.04 -3.6%

Over 2.5 79.5% — — —

Over 3.5 78.9% 64.5% 1.55 +22.3%

BTTS 29.7% 51.8% 1.93 -42.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -1.2%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 85%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.2 xG (away)5.3 BTTS prob29.7%

A 93% / xG 0.2-5.3 / O2.5 80% / NoBTTS 30%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–5 15.0%

#2 0–4 14.2%

#3 0–3 10.8%

#4 0–2 6.2%

#5 0–1 2.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Melaka0.2

Johor Darul5.3

COMBINED 5.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.5% · O3.5 PROB 78.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MELAKA · PPG 1.40

JOHOR DARUL · PPG 3.00

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Melaka (H) 0.2%

ODDS 46.00 · IMPLIED 2.2% EV -90.8%

Draw 7.1%

ODDS 8.25 · IMPLIED 12.1% EV -41.4%

Johor Darul (A) 92.7%

ODDS 1.04 · IMPLIED 96.2% EV -3.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Melaka face Johor Darul in Malaysia - Super League on Tuesday, April 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Melaka a 0% chance, the draw 7% and Johor Darul 93%, so Johor Darul are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.2 for Melaka and 5.3 for Johor Darul (5.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-5. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 30% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Melaka are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 3.00 for Johor Darul. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +22.3%. This match finished 1-2.

Melaka vs Johor Darul Prediction— Malaysia - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Malaysia - Super League Predictions