PSBS Biak N. vs Malut United Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Indonesia - Liga 1 Regular Season - 30 Maguwoharjo Stadium· Yogyakarta Tuesday, April 28, 2026 12:00

PSBS Biak N. PPG 0.86

0-7 MISS

Malut United PPG 1.57

Draw· +67.3% ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

PSBS Biak N. face Malut United in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Tuesday, April 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PSBS Biak N. a 10% chance, the draw 22% and Malut United 68%, so Malut United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for PSBS Biak N. and 3.5 for Malut United (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PSBS Biak N. are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 1.57 for Malut United. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +67.3%. This match finished 0-7.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 9.6%

Odds: 16.00 EV: +53.6%

Draw 22.3%

Odds: 7.50 EV: +67.3%

Away 68.1%

Odds: 1.11 EV: -24.4%

Model lean: Away ✔ Hit Not tracked as an official bet.

1X2 pick: Away → Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 67.8% Odds: 1.25 -15.3%

Over 3.5 63.0% Odds: 1.70 +7.1%

BTTS 58.5% Odds: 1.95 +14.1%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-3 ✘

2nd 1-3 ✘

3rd 0-2 ✘

4th 0-4 ✘

5th 1-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

PSBS Biak N.

0.89

Malut United

3.45

Model SuggestionAway -24.4% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-24.4%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5/Under 53%

BTTS/No 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 46% (11 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.57) vs Home POOR (0.86)