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Arema vs Persebaya S. Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Regular Season - 30 ·Tuesday, April 28, 2026, 08:30

Arema

PPG 1.43 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Persebaya S.

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.8% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-110.9%0-28.4%0-34.3%0-4+2.3%1 1-07.8%1-112.1%1-29.3%1-34.8%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.3%2-16.7%2-25.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.4%3 3-01.6%3-12.5%3-21.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.3% 45.5% 2.20 -35.5%

Draw 30.3% 29.4% 3.40 +3.0%

Away win 40.4% 35.1% 2.85 +15.1%

Over 2.5 51.1% 55.6% 1.80 -8.0%

Over 3.5 27.6% 33.3% 3.00 -17.2%

BTTS 57.8% 60.6% 1.65 -4.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -13.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob57.8%

A 40% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 0–1 10.9%

#4 0–0 7.0%

#5 0–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arema1.1

Persebaya S.1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.1% · O3.5 PROB 27.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AREMA · PPG 1.43

PERSEBAYA S. · PPG 1.43

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.43), Away AVERAGE (1.43)

Win probability 1X2

Arema (H) 29.3%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -35.5%

Draw 30.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +3.0%

Persebaya S. (A) 40.4%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +15.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arema face Persebaya S. in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Tuesday, April 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arema a 29% chance, the draw 30% and Persebaya S. 40%, so Persebaya S. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Arema and 1.5 for Persebaya S. (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arema are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.43 for Persebaya S.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +15.1%. This match finished 0-4.

Arema vs Persebaya S. Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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