Today / Jamaica - Premier League / Molynes Utd vs Tivoli Gardens

Molynes Utd vs Tivoli Gardens Prediction— Jamaica - Premier League

Regular Season - 37 ·Monday, April 27, 2026, 22:00

Molynes Utd

PPG 1.06 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Tivoli Gardens

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.06), Away POOR (0.88)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-17.9%0-23.5%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.8%1-112.1%1-25.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.6%2-19.2%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.4%3-14.7%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.0% — — —

Draw 29.3% — — —

Away win 24.7% — — —

Over 2.5 50.0% — — —

Over 3.5 22.2% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 46% / xG 1.5-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 13.8%

#3 0–0 9.0%

#4 2–0✓ 10.6%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Molynes Utd1.5

Tivoli Gardens0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MOLYNES UTD · PPG 1.06

TIVOLI GARDENS · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.06), Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

Molynes Utd (H) 46.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Tivoli Gardens (A) 24.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Molynes Utd face Tivoli Gardens in Jamaica - Premier League on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Molynes Utd a 46% chance, the draw 29% and Tivoli Gardens 25%, so Molynes Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Molynes Utd and 0.9 for Tivoli Gardens (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Molynes Utd are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 0.88 for Tivoli Gardens. This match finished 2-0.

Molynes Utd vs Tivoli Gardens Prediction— Jamaica - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Jamaica - Premier League Predictions