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ADT vs Los Chankas Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 12 ·Monday, April 27, 2026, 20:00

ADT

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDLL

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Los Chankas

PPG 2.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 58.2% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-110.6%0-29.3%0-35.5%0-4+3.6%1 1-06.3%1-111.1%1-29.8%1-35.8%1-4+3.8%2 2-03.3%2-15.8%2-25.1%2-33.0%2-4+2.0%3 3-01.2%3-12.0%3-21.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.3% 40.0% 2.50 -31.8%

Draw 28.2% 33.6% 2.98 -16.0%

Away win 44.5% 33.6% 2.98 +32.6%

Over 2.5 54.6% 47.6% 2.10 +14.7%

Over 3.5 31.1% 27.4% 3.65 +13.5%

BTTS 58.2% 57.8% 1.73 +0.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 112 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 11.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob58.2%

A 44% / xG 1.0-1.8 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–2 9.3%

#4 0–1 10.6%

#5 0–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ADT1.0

Los Chankas1.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.6% · O3.5 PROB 31.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ADT · PPG 1.00

LOS CHANKAS · PPG 2.20

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

58%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.20) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

ADT (H) 27.3%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -31.8%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV -16.0%

Los Chankas (A) 44.5%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV +32.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

ADT face Los Chankas in Peru - Primera División on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ADT a 27% chance, the draw 28% and Los Chankas 45%, so Los Chankas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for ADT and 1.8 for Los Chankas (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ADT are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.20 for Los Chankas. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +32.6%. This match finished 4-0.

ADT vs Los Chankas Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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