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Boulogne vs USL Dunkerque Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Regular Season - 32 ·Monday, April 27, 2026, 18:45

Boulogne

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 6

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

USL Dunkerque

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.1% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-111.1%0-27.6%0-33.4%0-4+1.6%1 1-09.4%1-112.7%1-28.6%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.4%2-17.3%2-24.9%2-32.2%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.0%3-12.8%3-21.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.0%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.5% 36.4% 2.75 -2.4%

Draw 32.1% 31.3% 3.20 +2.7%

Away win 32.5% 39.2% 2.55 -17.1%

Over 2.5 50.0% 47.6% 2.10 +5.0%

Over 3.5 24.2% 26.0% 3.85 -6.8%

BTTS 55.1% 55.6% 1.80 -0.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 24.9%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-6

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob55.1%

D 32% / xG 1.1-1.4 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 8.2%

#3 0–1 11.1%

#4 1–2 8.6%

#5 0–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Boulogne1.1

USL Dunkerque1.4

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 24.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BOULOGNE · PPG 1.00

USL DUNKERQUE · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Boulogne (H) 35.5%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -2.4%

Draw 32.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +2.7%

USL Dunkerque (A) 32.5%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -17.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Boulogne face USL Dunkerque in France - Ligue 2 on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Boulogne a 36% chance, the draw 32% and USL Dunkerque 33%, so Boulogne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Boulogne and 1.4 for USL Dunkerque (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Boulogne are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.20 for USL Dunkerque. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.0%. This match finished 2-6.

Boulogne vs USL Dunkerque Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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