Today / Italy - Serie A / Lazio vs Udinese

Lazio vs Udinese Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Regular Season - 34 ·Monday, April 27, 2026, 18:45

Lazio

PPG 1.63 · HOME

3 – 3

FULL TIME

Udinese

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-18.8%0-23.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.8%1-112.3%1-24.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.1%2-18.6%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.2%3-14.0%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-11.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.3% 50.0% 2.00 -9.4%

Draw 30.4% 31.3% 3.20 -2.7%

Away win 24.4% 26.0% 3.85 -6.1%

Over 2.5 44.4% 45.5% 2.20 -2.3%

Over 3.5 17.7% 23.8% 4.20 -25.7%

BTTS 49.5% 51.8% 1.93 -4.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.5%

H 45% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 15.8%

#3 0–0 11.3%

#4 2–0 11.1%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lazio1.4

Udinese0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 17.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LAZIO · PPG 1.63

UDINESE · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.63), Away AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

Lazio (H) 45.3%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -9.4%

Draw 30.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -2.7%

Udinese (A) 24.4%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -6.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lazio face Udinese in Italy - Serie A on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lazio a 45% chance, the draw 30% and Udinese 24%, so Lazio are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Lazio and 0.8 for Udinese (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lazio are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 1.44 for Udinese. This match finished 3-3.

Lazio vs Udinese Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie A Predictions