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Cadiz vs Las Palmas Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 37 ·Monday, April 27, 2026, 18:30

Cadiz

PPG 1.11 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Las Palmas

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.6%0-117.1%0-210.7%0-34.5%0-4+1.8%1 1-010.1%1-112.6%1-27.9%1-33.3%1-4+1.4%2 2-03.7%2-14.7%2-22.9%2-31.2%2-4+0.5%3 3-00.9%3-11.2%3-20.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.1% 26.0% 3.85 +8.2%

Draw 32.0% 34.0% 2.94 -5.9%

Away win 39.9% 47.2% 2.12 -15.4%

Over 2.5 39.0% 47.6% 2.10 -18.1%

Over 3.5 14.2% 27.0% 3.70 -47.5%

BTTS 49.5% 56.5% 1.77 -12.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob49.5%

A 40% / xG 0.7-1.3 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.6%

#2 0–1 17.1%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 0–2 10.7%

#5 1–0 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cadiz0.7

Las Palmas1.3

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.0% · O3.5 PROB 14.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CADIZ · PPG 1.11

LAS PALMAS · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

50%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.11), Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Cadiz (H) 28.1%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +8.2%

Draw 32.0%

ODDS 2.94 · IMPLIED 34.0% EV -5.9%

Las Palmas (A) 39.9%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -15.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cadiz face Las Palmas in Spain - Segunda División on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cadiz a 28% chance, the draw 32% and Las Palmas 40%, so Las Palmas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Cadiz and 1.3 for Las Palmas (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cadiz are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 1.29 for Las Palmas. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +8.2%. This match finished 1-2.

Cadiz vs Las Palmas Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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