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Traiskirchen vs Donaufeld Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Ost - 27 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 17:00

Traiskirchen

PPG 1.69 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Donaufeld

PPG 1.58 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.5% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-16.5%0-26.4%0-34.3%0-4+3.3%1 1-04.7%1-19.3%1-29.2%1-36.1%1-4+4.8%2 2-03.4%2-16.7%2-26.6%2-34.4%2-4+3.4%3 3-01.6%3-13.2%3-23.2%3-32.1%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.6%4+-21.6%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.9% 47.6% 2.10 -41.4%

Draw 21.7% 26.7% 3.75 -18.6%

Away win 50.4% 37.0% 2.70 +36.1%

Over 2.5 66.5% 63.7% 1.57 +4.4%

Over 3.5 44.7% — — —

BTTS 65.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 13%

ROI -8.5%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob65.8%

A 50% / xG 1.4-2.0 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 2–1 6.7%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 0–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Traiskirchen1.4

Donaufeld2.0

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.5% · O3.5 PROB 44.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TRAISKIRCHEN · PPG 1.69

DONAUFELD · PPG 1.58

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.69), Away GOOD (1.58)

Win probability 1X2

Traiskirchen (H) 27.9%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -41.4%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -18.6%

Donaufeld (A) 50.4%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +36.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Traiskirchen face Donaufeld in Austria - Regionalliga - Ost on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Traiskirchen a 28% chance, the draw 22% and Donaufeld 50%, so Donaufeld are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Traiskirchen and 2.0 for Donaufeld (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Traiskirchen are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.58 for Donaufeld. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +36.1%. This match finished 3-2.

Traiskirchen vs Donaufeld Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Match Preview & Prediction

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