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Cagliari vs Atalanta Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Regular Season - 34 ·Monday, April 27, 2026, 16:30

Cagliari

PPG 1.19 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

Atalanta

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.6%0-114.9%0-29.6%0-34.1%0-4+1.7%1 1-010.1%1-113.0%1-28.3%1-33.6%1-4+1.5%2 2-04.4%2-15.6%2-23.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.7%3 3-01.3%3-11.6%3-21.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.5% 22.7% 4.40 +25.4%

Draw 32.3% 27.4% 3.65 +17.9%

Away win 39.2% 57.1% 1.75 -31.4%

Over 2.5 44.4% 54.6% 1.83 -18.8%

Over 3.5 17.2% 33.3% 3.00 -48.4%

BTTS 49.5% 57.1% 1.75 -13.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob49.5%

A 39% / xG 0.9-1.3 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 11.6%

#3 0–1 14.9%

#4 0–2 9.6%

#5 1–2 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cagliari0.9

Atalanta1.3

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 17.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CAGLIARI · PPG 1.19

ATALANTA · PPG 1.38

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.19), Away AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Cagliari (H) 28.5%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +25.4%

Draw 32.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +17.9%

Atalanta (A) 39.2%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -31.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cagliari face Atalanta in Italy - Serie A on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cagliari a 28% chance, the draw 32% and Atalanta 39%, so Atalanta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Cagliari and 1.3 for Atalanta (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cagliari are averaging 1.19 points per game versus 1.38 for Atalanta. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +25.4%. This match finished 3-2.

Cagliari vs Atalanta Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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