Al Jabalain vs Al Adalha Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 Regular Season - 31 Prince Abdul Aziz bin Masaad Stadium Monday, April 27, 2026 16:20

Al Jabalain PPG 2.00

1-2 MISS

Al Adalha PPG 0.60

Over3.5· +27.1% ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Jabalain face Al Adalha in Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Jabalain a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Al Adalha 15%, so Al Jabalain are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for Al Jabalain and 1.0 for Al Adalha (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Jabalain are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.60 for Al Adalha. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +27.1%. This match finished 1-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 63.5%

Odds: 1.30 EV: -17.4%

Draw 21.2%

Odds: 4.75 EV: +0.7%

Away 15.3%

Odds: 8.00 EV: +22.4%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 61.2% Odds: 1.48 -9.4%

Over 3.5 59.1% Odds: 2.15 +27.1%

BTTS 58.5% Odds: 1.67 -2.3%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 3-0 ✘

2nd 3-1 ✘

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 4-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Al Jabalain

3.14

Al Adalha

0.98

Model SuggestionHome -17.4% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-17.4%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5/Under 67%

BTTS/No 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 2.7%

Bet Hit 58% (12 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=63.5%