Today / Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 / Al Jabalain vs Al Adalha

Al Jabalain vs Al Adalha Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Regular Season - 31 ·Monday, April 27, 2026, 16:20

Al Jabalain

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Al Adalha

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.5% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-11.6%0-20.8%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-05.1%1-15.0%1-22.5%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-08.0%2-17.8%2-23.9%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.3%3-18.2%3-24.0%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-014.4%4+-114.2%4+-27.0%4+-32.3%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.5% 76.9% 1.30 -17.4%

Draw 21.2% 21.1% 4.75 +0.7%

Away win 15.3% 12.5% 8.00 +22.4%

Over 2.5 61.2% 67.6% 1.48 -9.4%

Over 3.5 59.1% 46.5% 2.15 +27.1%

BTTS 58.5% 59.9% 1.67 -2.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob58.5%

H 64% / xG 3.1-1.0 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 8.3%

#2 3–1 8.2%

#3 2–0 8.0%

#4 2–1 7.8%

#5 4–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Jabalain3.1

Al Adalha1.0

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 59.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AL JABALAIN · PPG 2.00

AL ADALHA · PPG 0.60

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=63.5%

Win probability 1X2

Al Jabalain (H) 63.5%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -17.4%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +0.7%

Al Adalha (A) 15.3%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV +22.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Jabalain face Al Adalha in Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Jabalain a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Al Adalha 15%, so Al Jabalain are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for Al Jabalain and 1.0 for Al Adalha (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Jabalain are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.60 for Al Adalha. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +27.1%. This match finished 1-2.

Al Jabalain vs Al Adalha Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 Predictions