Today / Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 / Al Raed vs Al Faisaly

Al Raed vs Al Faisaly Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Regular Season - 31 ·Monday, April 27, 2026, 16:10

Al Raed

PPG 1.87 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Al Faisaly

PPG 2.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.5% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-16.2%0-26.2%0-34.2%0-4+3.3%1 1-04.5%1-19.1%1-29.1%1-36.1%1-4+4.9%2 2-03.3%2-16.7%2-26.7%2-34.5%2-4+3.6%3 3-01.6%3-13.3%3-23.3%3-32.2%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.7%4+-21.7%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.7% 42.0% 2.38 -29.3%

Draw 29.4% 28.6% 3.50 +2.9%

Away win 40.9% 40.0% 2.50 +2.3%

Over 2.5 60.5% 63.7% 1.57 -5.0%

Over 3.5 46.1% 41.7% 2.40 +10.6%

BTTS 58.5% 69.0% 1.45 -15.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob58.5%

A 41% / xG 1.5-2.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 1–2✓ 9.1%

#3 2–2 6.7%

#4 2–1 6.7%

#5 0–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Raed1.5

Al Faisaly2.0

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 46.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AL RAED · PPG 1.87

AL FAISALY · PPG 2.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.87), Away EXCELLENT (2.13)

Win probability 1X2

Al Raed (H) 29.7%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -29.3%

Draw 29.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +2.9%

Al Faisaly (A) 40.9%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +2.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Raed face Al Faisaly in Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Raed a 30% chance, the draw 29% and Al Faisaly 41%, so Al Faisaly are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Al Raed and 2.0 for Al Faisaly (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Raed are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 2.13 for Al Faisaly. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.6%. This match finished 1-2.

Al Raed vs Al Faisaly Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 Predictions