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Javor Ivanjica vs Napredak Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Serbia - Super Liga logo Serbia flag Serbia - Super Liga Relegation Group - 33 Stadion Kraj Moravice· Ivanjica Monday, April 27, 2026 16:00
Javor Ivanjica logo Javor Ivanjica PPG 1.50
4-0 MISS
Napredak logo Napredak PPG 0.25
Away· +11.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Javor Ivanjica face Napredak in Serbia - Super Liga on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Javor Ivanjica a 59% chance, the draw 24% and Napredak 16%, so Javor Ivanjica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Javor Ivanjica and 0.7 for Napredak (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Javor Ivanjica are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.25 for Napredak. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +11.5%. This match finished 4-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 59.2%
Odds: 1.47 EV: -13.0%
Draw 24.4%
Odds: 3.80 EV: -7.3%
Away 16.4%
Odds: 6.80 EV: +11.5%
Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 51.6% Odds: 1.93 -0.4%
Over 3.5 29.3% Odds: 3.30 -3.3%
BTTS 49.5% Odds: 1.95 -3.5%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0
2nd 1-0
3rd 1-1
4th 3-0
5th 2-1

Expected Goals (xG)

Javor Ivanjica
2.06
Napredak
0.67

Model Suggestion

Home -13.0% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -13.0% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Away (+11.5%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%
O2.5/Under 43%
BTTS/No 41%
Score Hit 49%
ROI -53.7%
Bet Hit 23% (13 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
55%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=59.2%

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