Today / Serbia - Super Liga / Javor Ivanjica vs Napredak

Javor Ivanjica vs Napredak Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Relegation Group · Matchday 33 ·Monday, April 27, 2026, 16:00

Javor Ivanjica

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLLD

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Napredak

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWDL

// Model verdict

Home 65% chance

Model probability 59.2% vs bookmaker-implied 68.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-14.4%0-21.5%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.4%1-19.0%1-23.0%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.8%2-19.3%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.5%3-16.4%3-22.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.9%4+-15.3%4+-21.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.2% 68.0% 1.47 -13.0%

Draw 24.4% 26.3% 3.80 -7.3%

Away win 16.4% 14.7% 6.80 +11.5%

Over 2.5 51.6% 51.8% 1.93 -0.4%

Over 3.5 29.3% 30.3% 3.30 -3.3%

BTTS 49.5% 51.3% 1.95 -3.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -37.4%

Bet Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.5%

H 59% / xG 2.1-0.7 / O2.5 52% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.8%

#2 1–0 13.4%

#3 1–1 9.0%

#4 3–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Javor Ivanjica2.1

Napredak0.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.3%

Form & verdict PPG

JAVOR IVANJICA · PPG 1.50

NAPREDAK · PPG 0.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

65%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=59.2%

Win probability 1X2

Javor Ivanjica (H) 59.2%

ODDS 1.47 · IMPLIED 68.0% EV -13.0%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -7.3%

Napredak (A) 16.4%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV +11.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Javor Ivanjica face Napredak in Serbia - Super Liga on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Javor Ivanjica a 59% chance, the draw 24% and Napredak 16%, so Javor Ivanjica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Javor Ivanjica and 0.7 for Napredak (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Javor Ivanjica are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.25 for Napredak. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +11.5%. This match finished 4-0.

Javor Ivanjica vs Napredak Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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