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Al Anwar vs Al Ula Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Regular Season - 31 ·Monday, April 27, 2026, 16:00

Al Anwar

PPG 1.53 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Al Ula

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.5% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-17.8%0-29.4%0-37.5%0-4+7.8%1 1-03.4%1-18.1%1-29.6%1-37.7%1-4+8.1%2 2-01.7%2-14.1%2-24.9%2-33.9%2-4+4.1%3 3-00.6%3-11.4%3-21.7%3-31.4%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.5%4+-20.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.9% 17.9% 5.60 -16.6%

Draw 25.0% 24.4% 4.10 +2.5%

Away win 60.1% 67.6% 1.48 -11.1%

Over 2.5 60.5% 63.7% 1.57 -5.0%

Over 3.5 44.5% 40.8% 2.45 +9.0%

BTTS 58.5% 60.6% 1.65 -3.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob58.5%

A 60% / xG 1.0-2.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2✓ 9.6%

#2 0–2 9.4%

#3 1–1 8.1%

#4 1–3 7.7%

#5 0–3 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Anwar1.0

Al Ula2.4

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AL ANWAR · PPG 1.53

AL ULA · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.53) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Al Anwar (H) 14.9%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV -16.6%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +2.5%

Al Ula (A) 60.1%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -11.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Anwar face Al Ula in Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Anwar a 15% chance, the draw 25% and Al Ula 60%, so Al Ula are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Al Anwar and 2.4 for Al Ula (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Anwar are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 2.00 for Al Ula. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +9.0%. This match finished 1-2.

Al Anwar vs Al Ula Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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