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Hoffenheim W vs FC Koln W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Regular Season - 23 ·Monday, April 27, 2026, 16:00

Hoffenheim W

PPG 1.55 · HOME

6 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

FC Koln W

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.8% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-18.2%0-24.7%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.6%1-112.2%1-27.1%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.9%2-19.1%2-25.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.9%3-14.5%3-22.6%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.3%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.7% 56.5% 1.77 -26.2%

Draw 29.9% 25.3% 3.95 +18.1%

Away win 28.4% 28.6% 3.50 -0.6%

Over 2.5 50.6% 67.6% 1.48 -25.1%

Over 3.5 27.2% 45.5% 2.20 -40.2%

BTTS 57.8% 69.0% 1.45 -16.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob57.8%

H 42% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 0–0 7.2%

#4 1–0 10.6%

#5 2–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hoffenheim W1.5

FC Koln W1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.2%

Form & verdict PPG

HOFFENHEIM W · PPG 1.55

FC KOLN W · PPG 1.27

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.55), Away AVERAGE (1.27)

Win probability 1X2

Hoffenheim W (H) 41.7%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -26.2%

Draw 29.9%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +18.1%

FC Koln W (A) 28.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -0.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hoffenheim W face FC Koln W in Germany - Frauen Bundesliga on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hoffenheim W a 42% chance, the draw 30% and FC Koln W 28%, so Hoffenheim W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Hoffenheim W and 1.2 for FC Koln W (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hoffenheim W are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.27 for FC Koln W. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +18.1%. This match finished 6-2.

Hoffenheim W vs FC Koln W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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