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Gorica vs Istra Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Matchday 32 ·Monday, April 27, 2026, 16:00

Gorica

PPG 1.20 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Istra

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWDL

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 57.8% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-18.1%0-24.6%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.6%1-112.2%1-26.9%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.0%2-19.2%2-25.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.0%3-14.6%3-22.6%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.4%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.0% 51.5% 1.94 -18.5%

Draw 29.6% 30.8% 3.25 -3.8%

Away win 28.4% 26.7% 3.75 +6.5%

Over 2.5 51.0% 51.3% 1.95 -0.5%

Over 3.5 27.5% 29.4% 3.40 -6.5%

BTTS 57.8% 57.8% 1.73 -0.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -14.8%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob57.8%

H 42% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 0–0 7.1%

#4 1–0✓ 10.6%

#5 2–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gorica1.5

Istra1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.0% · O3.5 PROB 27.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GORICA · PPG 1.20

ISTRA · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

58%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.20), Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Gorica (H) 42.0%

ODDS 1.94 · IMPLIED 51.5% EV -18.5%

Draw 29.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -3.8%

Istra (A) 28.4%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +6.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gorica face Istra in Croatia - HNL on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gorica a 42% chance, the draw 30% and Istra 28%, so Gorica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Gorica and 1.1 for Istra (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gorica are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.13 for Istra. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +6.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Gorica vs Istra Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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